Everyone talks about how beautiful Path is. Instead, they should talk about how push-y it is.
Why? Because Path has 1) identified the critical mobile social channel (push notifs) and 2) executed on them like a pro (Dave Morin co-invented FB connect & understands channels well).
Here is why this is critical:
- Morin wants to build a “slow” company (specifically a “slow” social network)
- By Morin’s own definition this means “slow” organic install growth driven family, close friends (150 max friend limit)
- Social networks increase in value as user base grows
- If emphasis is truly on “slow” growth, extraordinary attention must be given to retaining the users that come in the door
- Push notifs (PNs) are *the* critical mobile retention driver
Given the above, Path has executed very well:
- High quantity of PN: nearly every type of user generated content (photo, thought, location, I’m with, I’m listening to) generates a PN to everyone in the user’s network. Basically, if you use Path, you generate PNs.
- Quality of Path PNs is high. Two reasons for this 1) Path embeds user generated content into each PN (as a result you get personalized PN) and 2) length of PNs are very short
- PN looping -> Since each user generated action creates a PN, users often create PN loops (Joe posts a thought, which sends a PN to Jill, Jill comments on it, which sends a PN to Joe, Joe comments back, which sends a PN to Jill, etc…)
Why does it matter?
- A great PN strategy will act as a force multiplier on growth -> by dramatically altering the user retention curve for the better
- Even low quality PN, sent at higher volume can have a material impact on app retention (think 1,000 basis points all across the retention curve)
- Given Path’s good execution on PN, it’s likely that they are seeing retention gains in excess of 1,000 -> maybe as high as 2,000 basis points
- This creates a material difference in daily average users (DAU) -> by D90 Path could be seeing a 500K+ incremental daily users due to their PN strategy (this is even under more conservative assumptions than a 2,000 bps difference throughout the retention curve)
- As a result, PN strategy is likely driving an incremental ~35%+ increase in DAU
